mage67 (mage67) wrote,

A very Pessimistic View that just happens to be Reality

Gentle reader, please don't read this blog if you're depressed about the economy. I will tell you a few disturbing facts. Some you may know already and some you may have thought you knew. You might prefer a nice story with puppy dogs or cute kitties or fuzzy bunnies. You might prefer the possibly wiser course of stopping here. There is no shame in that.

The US is over $10 Trillion in debt. We have made over $50 Trillion in promises for the future. Taxes bring in about $3 Trillion per year and most of this cannot go towards these obligations if the US is to function as it has. There is no way to pay all this off unless we break promises and/or renege on the debt. Both options are disastrous.

The automobile industry in the US is probably doomed. We can prolong the inevitable by bailing them out, but it probably can't be stopped. This is because the union wages in the US cannot hope to compete with China who can pay their workers less than $1 per hour. The car companies are not competent enough to solve this fundamental problem. Of course a miracle could happen where the US comes up with a brilliant design that makes US cars competitive, bit this is very very very unlikely to happen. For every job lost in the US auto industry, 6 related jobs in other industries are lost.

All other industries are struggling because people are afraid to part with their money, and who can blame them? The Cheap food industry is the only industry doing well right now.

We've lost more than 1 million jobs this year alone. People have lost faith in the financial industry. We have not even hit bottom yet, but I hope we're getting close. If we're very lucky, things will recover compared to January 2008 standards in a year.

The solution is that our leaders and industry captains need to act responsibly and try to put others' needs ahead of there own more often. This seems unlikely.

This is the dirty little secret that everyone in Washington knows. We need to raise taxes and cut wages eventually. Any job that can be done remotely overseas, will be done overseas since the wages are so much less.

My advice is:

  1. Keep vigilant of what others are doing.
  2. Try to save as much money as you can.
  3. Stay away from any industry that can be outsourced.
  4. If you have a job in an outsourceable industry, try to plan to get a job in another industry.
  5. Statistics are more misleading than ever before. Read them carefully and analyze them knowing they will probably hide how bad things really are.


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